Michael Yanofsky

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This blog was urged upon me by some of my friends with whom I have been communicating about the 2004 presidential election. They suggested that rather than just passing along my thoughts on the politics of the day via email, I should record them in a blog. And so here it is! Anyone wishing to comment on any of my blog messages may do so by clicking on the word "Comments" below the message. Comments may be contrary to or to concur with what I say, or to comment on someone else's comment.


Thursday, October 09, 2008

27 Days to Go

270 Electoral Votes Needed to Win-27 Days to Go!
Obama is leading by 10% or more (Strong Dem) in states that have 228 Electoral Votes.
Obama is leading by 5% through 9% (Weak Dem) in states that have 49 Electoral Votes.
Thus, Obama is leading by 5% or more in states that have 277 Electoral Votes

In addition, Obama is leading by 4% in states that have 41 Electoral Votes.

From Electoral-Vote.com
strong Dem Strong Dem (228)
weak Dem Weak Dem (49)
barely Dem Barely Dem (72)
tied Exactly tied (15)
barely GOP Barely GOP (11)
weak GOP Weak GOP (63)
strong GOP Strong GOP (100)

Assuming that little will change from now until 11/4, the only open question remaining is the extent to which the "Bradley Effect" will alter the results of the election.

From Wikipedia:
The "Bradley Effect" is named for Tom Bradley, an African-American who lost the 1982 California governor's race despite being [significantly] ahead in voter polls. [It] refers to a tendency on the part of voters to tell pollsters that they are undecided or likely to vote for a Black candidate, and yet, on election day, vote for his/her white opponent.

Michael

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