State of the Election Campaign
Here we are just 1 week before the election. The polls universally point toward a significant win for Obama. However, it isn't over 'till it's over and there is plenty of room for the Democrats to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory and for them to end up having "just missed it by that much" to quote Maxwell Smart. As it is, the polls are showing a slight narrowing in the past 3 days.
Obama's lead in the Real Clear Politics poll of polls average began building on 9/8, the day that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were nationalized. The lead increased even more right after the Sarah Palin interview on CBS by Katie Couric on 9/24. It rose to 8% at the beginning of last week. Since the middle of last week It has fallen now to 7.3%. The Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll has slipped from an 11.9% lead to a 4.8% lead today. In addition, Obama's advantage amongst some critical demographic groups (independents, white males age 24-54) has also slipped after having risen to a surprising lead earlier this past week.
What has caused this slippage and can it continue to eventually cause Obama to lose the election?
It is caused by a combination of things. McCain has launched a triple barreled nasty attack on Obama and the Democrats. First, taking advantage of Joe Biden's foot in mouth comment about the new president being tested by some crisis, McCain, looking to instill fear in the electorate has hammered on Obama's inexperience, claiming that the best way to prevent a crisis is to elect him (McCain).
Second, taking advantage of Obama's comment to Joe The Plumber about "spreading the wealth", McCain is demagoguing the issue claiming that Obama is a "socialist" (read as "communist").
And finally, instilling fear in the electorate that with Obama being the most liberal man ever to run for president, the trio of Obama as president, Harry Reid as Senate Majority Leader, and Nancy Pelosi as Speaker of the House is very "dangerous".
There is little if any truth to McCain's claims, totally misstating the context of the Biden comment and Obam's comment to the phony Joe the Plumber. Also, to say that Obama is the most liberal man ever to run for president is quite a stretch. Obama has been running a very centrist campaign and according to his record in the Senate, he is not the most liberal member of the Senate. The most liberal tag has been hung on him by "The National Journal" whose criteria are somewhat questionable. Is Obama more liberal than the Independent (Socialist) Senator Bernie Sanders or Russ Feingold or Teddy Kennedy? In fact, the same journal rated Obama as the 16th most liberal senator in 2005. And quoting from Wikipedia:
McCain is a dynamic campaigner, especially when he is the underdog. Playing on fear is an effective, even if unscrupulous, campaign technique. After all, Bush won the 2004 presidential election using fear of terrorists as his primary campaign tool.
Still there are some strong positives going for Obama. For example there are the negatives for McCain as the desperate angry man running the most slanderous campaign in recent time. And of course there is his irrational pick of the now discredited Sarah Palin. Now add in the conviction of Senator Ted Stevens (R-AK). Most of all there is the fact that McCain is behind the curve on the major issues.
(SEE: MSNBC Poll). A summary is shown below:
This Wednesday evening at 8:00pm the Obama campaign has purchased half an hour of TV time on NBC, CBS, Fox Broadcast, MSNBC, and maybe some others. It will be his time to make his case. I suspect the he will present a positive vision for the future and emphasize his theme of Hope. There will be no McCain bashing.
Obama's lead in the Real Clear Politics poll of polls average began building on 9/8, the day that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were nationalized. The lead increased even more right after the Sarah Palin interview on CBS by Katie Couric on 9/24. It rose to 8% at the beginning of last week. Since the middle of last week It has fallen now to 7.3%. The Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll has slipped from an 11.9% lead to a 4.8% lead today. In addition, Obama's advantage amongst some critical demographic groups (independents, white males age 24-54) has also slipped after having risen to a surprising lead earlier this past week.
What has caused this slippage and can it continue to eventually cause Obama to lose the election?
It is caused by a combination of things. McCain has launched a triple barreled nasty attack on Obama and the Democrats. First, taking advantage of Joe Biden's foot in mouth comment about the new president being tested by some crisis, McCain, looking to instill fear in the electorate has hammered on Obama's inexperience, claiming that the best way to prevent a crisis is to elect him (McCain).
Second, taking advantage of Obama's comment to Joe The Plumber about "spreading the wealth", McCain is demagoguing the issue claiming that Obama is a "socialist" (read as "communist").
And finally, instilling fear in the electorate that with Obama being the most liberal man ever to run for president, the trio of Obama as president, Harry Reid as Senate Majority Leader, and Nancy Pelosi as Speaker of the House is very "dangerous".
There is little if any truth to McCain's claims, totally misstating the context of the Biden comment and Obam's comment to the phony Joe the Plumber. Also, to say that Obama is the most liberal man ever to run for president is quite a stretch. Obama has been running a very centrist campaign and according to his record in the Senate, he is not the most liberal member of the Senate. The most liberal tag has been hung on him by "The National Journal" whose criteria are somewhat questionable. Is Obama more liberal than the Independent (Socialist) Senator Bernie Sanders or Russ Feingold or Teddy Kennedy? In fact, the same journal rated Obama as the 16th most liberal senator in 2005. And quoting from Wikipedia:
"A study of the voting records of all 100 senators, using an average of the ratings of seven liberal interest groups, described Obama as "among the least liberal", scoring an 80%, of the Democrats." this statement is documented with a reference. (SEE: U.S. Senate Career of Barack Obama).
McCain is a dynamic campaigner, especially when he is the underdog. Playing on fear is an effective, even if unscrupulous, campaign technique. After all, Bush won the 2004 presidential election using fear of terrorists as his primary campaign tool.
Still there are some strong positives going for Obama. For example there are the negatives for McCain as the desperate angry man running the most slanderous campaign in recent time. And of course there is his irrational pick of the now discredited Sarah Palin. Now add in the conviction of Senator Ted Stevens (R-AK). Most of all there is the fact that McCain is behind the curve on the major issues.
(SEE: MSNBC Poll). A summary is shown below:
| ISSUE | OBAMA | McCAIN |
| Health Care | 59% | 20% |
| Economy | 49% | 28% |
| Wall Street Crisis | 45% | 24% |
| Taxes | 48% | 34% |
| Energy (Cost of Gas) | 44% | 32% |
| Hope & Optimism | 53% | 23% |
| Leadership Qualities | 36% | 40% |
| Improve America's World Standing | 51% | 31% |
| Catching Osama bin Laden | 19% | 39% |
| War in Iraq | 40% | 45% |
This Wednesday evening at 8:00pm the Obama campaign has purchased half an hour of TV time on NBC, CBS, Fox Broadcast, MSNBC, and maybe some others. It will be his time to make his case. I suspect the he will present a positive vision for the future and emphasize his theme of Hope. There will be no McCain bashing.
posted by Michael | 12:15 AM
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